Two weeks after the Brexit vote

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Friday, July 24, 2016

Immediate effects, via FT:

  • UK votes by 51.9 per cent to leave EU
  • David Cameron stands down as PM
  • Scottish leader says new independence referendum likely
  • Sterling plunges to 30-year low
  • Global stock markets see big sell offs

"The Brexit is expected to jolt the U.S. economy and push back any plans for the Fed to raise interest rates. Already, the referendum sent the dollar soaring as the British pound and euro plunged and equities markets went into a nose dive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, was down more than 400 points, or over 2%, Friday morning.

As the EU’s institutions scrambled to respond to the bodyblow of Britain’s exit, Schulz said uncertainty was “the opposite of what we need”, adding that it was difficult to accept that “a whole continent is taken hostage because of an internal fight in the Tory party”.

... Jean-Claude Juncker ... said he there was no reason to wait until October to begin negotiating Britain’s departure from the European Union. “Britons decided yesterday that they want to leave the European Union, so it doesn’t make any sense to wait until October to try to negotiate the terms of their departure,” Juncker said in an interview with Germany’s ARD television station. “I would like to get started immediately.”

Saturday and Sunday, June 25/26

Monday, June 27

Tuesday, July 28

Wednesday, July 29

Europe’s leaders have dug in their heels over uncontrolled migration in the single market, scotching any hopes the UK might harbour about negotiating a post-Brexit deal in a direct snub to prime minister David Cameron’s plea to recognise British voters’ concerns.

The move to damp Westminster expectations to curb free movement came after the EU’s remaining 27 members met in Brussels for the first time without the UK — a political watershed after 43 years of British membership.

“There will be no single market à la carte,” said Donald Tusk, the EU Council president, as the group met to set out the terms of engagement for any divorce talks following the Brexit referendum.

Thursday, July 30

Friday, July 1

Week 2 after the referendum

Both Leadsom and May are to the political right of Cameron: May has taken a hard line on immigration, asserting in a speech last year that mass arrivals threatened the country's "cohesion." Leadsom, meanwhile, opposed the country's legalization of gay marriage — a move that Cameron championed. She also said Thursday she would push for a repeal of Britain's fox hunting ban.

Now that Conservative members of Parliament have picked the two finalists, it will be up to the party's 150,000 rank-and-file members to pick the leader to govern this nation of 65 million.

Because the Conservatives won an absolute majority in Parliament in last year’s general election, they do not need to go back to the public to seek a mandate for a new leader. Instead, party members will cast their ballots by mail through the summer.

Digital markets & politics watch, June 2016

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