Who needs Chinese markets?

 •  Filed under China, International economics

The Economist just published this map:

Investors are now trying to delve beyond iPhone shipments and gauge where China’s economy—and so the world’s—stands. In terms of global impact, a “hard landing” in China would now rival an American depression. Countries from Australia to Angola have grown richer from digging stuff out of the ground and shipping it to China. Industries from carmaking to luxury goods look to China for new business. It has been the most stable contributor to world economic growth. Will that continue?

... Exports are stumbling, bad loans rising and the industrial sector at its weakest since the depths of the global financial crisis. Never entirely credible, the government’s claims that the economy is chugging along at 7% now elicit derision.

... On August 11th the central bank stunned investors by devaluing the yuan, whose rate it “guides” through regular interventions. The currency moved more in a day than it does in most months. The devaluation looks to have been a technical change to the way the exchange rate is managed. But thanks to poor communication, many saw it as China’s first fusillade in a global currency war. Markets around the world have been on tenterhooks ever since. Capital outflows from China have shot up as investors have soured on the economy.

What will China import in the future?

WSJ:

To insulate itself further from trade swings, Hamburg—like Germany overall—is striving to move beyond exports of manufactured goods into more knowledge-intensive sectors with resilient demand in China, such as renewable energy and health care [emphasis added], said Ms. Nienstedt at Hamburg’s chamber of commerce.

China now imports more commercial services than either France or Germany:

Year: 2013; Value = Billion dollars; Source: WTO, page 28.

As of 2013, the EU accounted for about 1/3 of U.S. service exports. One might expect Japan and Mexico to be other top recipients of U.S. services. In fact, U.S. exported more of it's services (4.8%) to China than to Mexico (4.3%, see page 34) .