How America voted in 2016: A generational divide?
Based on CCES data, we know this about the 2016 outcome:
There is a larger number of young conservatives than the popular stereotypes would suggest:
Among young moderates, 70% of voted for Clinton in 2016.
In separate calculations (based again on 2016 VOTER Survey), I found 36% of Clinton voters identified themselves as moderate. Slightly over 6% of Clinton voters said their were conservatives. Among Trump voters, 26% stated they were moderate and more than 65% said they saw themselves as conservative.
That suggests Democratic candidates can do well among the young moderates, and a significant share of young Americans will is unlikely to vote for Democrats in the near future.
In fact, fewer than half of young Americans identify as Democrats:
The code for all of VOTER-Study-based calculations is posted on Github.
Based on exit polls, we can say that in 2016: