Understanding the 2016 vote: Democratic turnout

Why did the election in 2016 turn out the way it did? One story is the that too many Democrats stayed home. Soon after the vote, articles like this one (“Don’t blame minority turnout for Clinton’s loss. White Democrats in key states just didn’t vote.”) went up.…

Cynicism in America

Is the economic system "rigged"? Several presidential candidates claimed they believed it was -- and that they'd clean it up, if elected. "It's not just the political system that's rigged, it's the whole economy", Americans were told by Trump last summer. But was the cheering at…

Can government spending meet expectations?

New demands and expectations The latest Fiscal Monitor report warns that more will be expected from fiscal actions in the future: The global economy is undergoing major transformations, including a productivity slowdown, technological change, and global economic integration. This creates new demands for public policies to facilitate these transformations, while…

Interpersonal trust

In OECD countries, about 36% of interviewees expressed interpersonal trust. In Nordic countries over 60% of interviewees trust each other compared to less than 13% in Chile, Mexico and Turkey. Among the key partner economies, levels of trust are usually lower than in OECD countries ranging from 4% of the…

Pubic concern about government debt

The share of people who are very concerned about public debt varies a lot across countries. The magnitude of public concern for selected is show in this chart: Data: Pew Global Attitudes survey, 2014 I posted the spreadsheet with additional countries on Github. Looking at the EU only, the deficit…

An unequal recovery

Some time ago, I looked at wage growth in advanced economies since 2007 and saw that falling or stagnant wages were not just a southern-European disease: the mean, inflation-adjusted wage in the U.K. was nearly 6% lower in 2013 compared to 2007: @Frances_Coppola @MervynDinnen Sounds right! My recent…

Economic slowdown in China

How is the slowdown affecting various Chinese regions? If we look at average growth rates between 2009-12 and then the latest 3 years of data (2012-14, because 2015 GDP is still only available for China as a whole), it is clear that all provinces have gone through a downward adjustment:…

How likely is a June hike?

As the April FOMC minutes came out on May 18, the market reassessed the probability of a looming hike immediately: Source: Fed Funds futures, via Bloomberg Commentary on U.S. monetary policy outlook FRB: FOMC Minutes, April 26-27, 2016 Tim Duy's Fed Watch: This Is Not A Drill. This Is…

Iveta Radičová on anti-EU sentiment

In an interview with Denník N, former Slovak prime minister Iveta Radičová accurately points out that it was never monetary assistance from Brussels that "caused" corruption in the new member countries. In the last sentence, she says: "With all due respect, it is our problem that we…