central banking

A collection of 12 posts

"central banking" Stories Page 1 of 1  

No June hike

US outlook prior to the FOMC meeting Economic activity is clearly one of the main inputs: Source: BEA and @janzilinsky BEA revised Q1 GDP growth estimate...

Postponing the June hike

The jobs report was disappointing.[1] Yesterday’s probability of a June hike was 21% (and it was 30% in May 18th). In the afternoon today...

How likely is a June hike?

As the April FOMC minutes came out on May 18, the market reassessed the probability of a looming hike immediately: Source: Fed Funds futures, via Bloomberg...

Are central banks the only game in town?

This passage from Larry Summers' Q&A session at the Peterson Institute is worth quoting in full: There are people who believe that these [QE...

Happening in China - late January 2016

Capital flows Eswar Prasad: Capital controls will not cure China’s ills Opening up the capital account facilitated Japan’s integration into global trade and finance,...

Summers on the power of monetary policy

Lawrence Summers at the CFR event Assessing Global Economic and Political Risks in 2016 said: Inflation expectations well below 2 percent. I mean, think about this:...

Keeping the yuan stable? (The PBOC dilemma)

WSJ, Jan. 25th, 2016: China Can’t Paper Over Yuan-Policy Contradictions Reuters: Japan, China seek new dialogue on yuan: "Japan and China are working to...

Designing a horse (and monetary policy) by committee

Are uncoordinated messages from the Fed causing confusion? 3 views: The charge Kenneth Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication Breakdown Nothing describes the United States Federal Reserve’...

What should the Fed do? Three views

Martin Wolf: The case for keeping US interest rates low [The BIS] believes that monetary policy should be targeted not at equilibrium in the real economy,...

Recognizing the importance of redistribution channels of monetary policy

Are we using inadequate models to make predictions? From Amir Sufi's Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture: During normal times, monetary policy affects the real economy primarily through...

What are the effects of QE?

Last month, I posted nine opinions about quantitative easing. This week, Brookings devoted half a day to the (hypothesized) effects of QE on inequality: A widely...

Nine perspectives on quantitative easing

Global Impact and Challenges of Unconventional Monetary Policies; IMF Policy Paper The paper definies unconventional monetary policies (UMP) of two types: policies to restore market functioning...

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