AIIB update, mid-2016

Canada Applies to Join AIIB - WSJ AIIB, officially established in December last year, currently has 57 members and is starting out with $100 billion in capital. It was seen as a propaganda victory for China when U.S. allies such as the U.K. and Germany joined. At its…

How to have a respectful conversation

Recently I have seen three fine articles on how language can be barrier to honest and constructive communication. I am posting a brief a summary and a few reactions: Respect diverse values Arnold Kling suggests that it's helpful to recognize that your interlocutor's way of framing social issues is sometimes…

Michel Rocard

Former prime minister of France, Michel Rocard, passed away on July 2, 2016. New York Times obituary: “Our social system kills the goose that lays the golden eggs,” Mr. Rocard told the newsmagazine Le Point in an extensive interview two weeks ago. “As many start-ups are born every year in…

Two weeks after the Brexit vote

Friday, July 24, 2016 Immediate effects, via FT: UK votes by 51.9 per cent to leave EU David Cameron stands down as PM Scottish leader says new independence referendum likely Sterling plunges to 30-year low Global stock markets see big sell offs Treasury’s Lew Says He Will Work…

Digital markets & politics watch, June 2016

Politics Here’s the data that told us Bernie Sanders would lose - The Washington Post Apple won't aid GOP convention over Trump - POLITICO: "Google said in April it would set up shop on the GOP convention floor, despite a protest by liberal groups and civil rights activists…

Brexit referendum

It is demoralizing to observe how a partnership for peace and mutually beneficial exchange could so easily be diminished. And it is chilling that such a consequential decision will largely be shaped by temporary moods. Emotional geo-politics - not a good combination at all. I have been reminded in recent…

No June hike

US outlook prior to the FOMC meeting Economic activity is clearly one of the main inputs: Source: BEA and @janzilinsky BEA revised Q1 GDP growth estimate up (from 0.5 to 0.8 percent) in late May. Expectations one day before the meeting: Fed Fund futures prices today say:-…

Economic slowdown in China

How is the slowdown affecting various Chinese regions? If we look at average growth rates between 2009-12 and then the latest 3 years of data (2012-14, because 2015 GDP is still only available for China as a whole), it is clear that all provinces have gone through a downward adjustment:…