Economic slowdown in China

 •  Filed under China, Own charts

How is the slowdown affecting various Chinese regions? If we look at average growth rates between 2009-12 and then the latest 3 years of data (2012-14, because 2015 GDP is still only available for China as a whole), it is clear that all provinces have gone through a downward adjustment:

Source: The 2015 Chinese Statistical Yearbook and own calculations.

Typically, those regions that grew very fast (catching up with the most developed regions), continued to grow relatively fast, compared to the rest of the country.

The persistence of relative growth performance is apparent in the next chart:

Source: The 2015 Chinese Statistical Yearbook and own calculations.

I also labeled all provinces, though that ends up making the chart less readable:

All growth rates were calculated using per capita GDP data. In some cases, total GDP growth can be a lot higher than population-adjusted growth, as shown in the last chart:

Source: The 2015 Chinese Statistical Yearbook and own calculations.

But the overall message is not sensitive to how exactly you measure or adjust GDP. In per capita terms, the share of provinces growing at double-digit rates has plummeted to 6%, but even abstracting from population growth (looking at economic performance alone) fewer than one in five provinces are growing extremely fast:

The last figure suggests that the 10% target became very hard to achieve already three years ago.