Economic recovery in Spain

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According to European Commission's Winter 2016 Economic Forecast, Spain's gross domestic product grew 3.2% in 2015 and is expected to grow at a 2.8% rate this year.

(Spain also experienced deflation of 0.6% in 2015.)

Between 2013 and 2015, the unemployment rate in Spain fell by nearly 4 percentage points (from 26.1% to 22.3%), edging a bit closer to the "natural rate":

![](/content/images/2016/02/spain-unemployment.png)
Data: AMECO

The report on Spain is optimistic about the near future:

Ongoing wage moderation keeps a lid on nominal unit labour cost growth, supporting robust though decelerating job creation. In turn, unemployment is expected to continue falling over the forecast horizon, falling below 19% by 2017.

But can we really call 19% a success?

And what if recessions in emerging markets spread, causing lower than expected growth in advanced economies?

Latest data show much-needed improvement but, in absolute terms, this is simply not good enough.

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