Four data-rich and fun stories for today:
Will the stock market go up?
I think this tells us more about the model used by investors (something like adaptive expectations) than about the future:
In this year’s survey, 71% of Chinese investors expect growth in the stock market this year; only 6% have a negative outlook.
... Over half of Chinese investors (51%) evaluate their investment success in less than a year, making China home to the most short-sighted investors in the world.
The cruise industry is coming to China
In 2014 about 700,000 Chinese travelers cruised, compared with 10 million Americans and more than 6 million Europeans. But the numbers are climbing rapidly—an increase of 79 percent from 2012 to 2014—and the ceiling isn’t yet visible. In the U.S. and Australia, about 3.5 percent of the population cruises each year; the proportion in China is less than one-sixtieth of that. Some forecasters estimate that China will be the No. 2 market by 2017—and that it could eventually replace the U.S. as the largest in the world.
Local governments have already built cruise terminals in Sanya, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Xiamen, with more on the way in at least four other coastal cities.
Reported by Bloomberg.
It was Harvard in September 2012, and students at the John F. Kennedy School of Government were spellbound by an unusual lecturer, a short, plain-talking man with close-set eyes and a prominent widow’s peak.
“In China, it’s not easy for a company, especially a private company, to be successful and grow,” he said through an interpreter. “The hardships they face are many times greater than in the United States.”
It would not have been a particularly incisive observation from a member of the faculty. But the speaker that afternoon was Wang Jianlin, and despite the hardships that he described, he was on a remarkable winning streak.
Months earlier, Mr. Wang had purchased AMC Entertainment Holdings, the second-largest theater chain in the United States.
An open market for cars in China?
Unlike Volvo, a unit of Chinese carmaker Geely, most multinational car executives are reluctant to talk about China as a possible future export platform for their companies.
That is in part because they do not want to compete against sister units overseas and would also have to share their export earnings with their Chinese joint venture partners. Chinese government rules cap foreign ownership of automotive factories at 50 per cent.
On exports from China:
So far, even well-regarded Chinese companies such as SUV-maker Great Wall Motor have exported primarily to developing — and often volatile — markets such as Iran, Russia and Ukraine.
Photo credit: Jakob Montrasio